FOR seven years and some more this set-up has been around. And what does it have to show for itself? In a moment of candour our man in Washington, retired Maj-Gen Mahmud Durrani, has said that if the Yanks were to put more pressure on the Generalissimo to do more in the tribal areas, it could well trigger his downfall.

The unvarnished truth is not a commodity ambassadors usually handle. They are expected to maintain a calm face even if the heavens are about to fall. But I suppose the way Pakistan is being buffeted by contrary winds the truth had to come out in some form or the other.

Still, it is a bit of a shock: a single telling sentence summing up the strength and glories of this dispensation. Since October 1999 the nation is being told that stability has at last been achieved and ‘real’ democracy established. Turns out that the impregnable fortress we were being asked to put our faith in is a sand castle. Thank you, Gen Durrani.

Reinforcing the impression of shakiness are the various calls from different quarters about the possibility of the elections being postponed. First into the breach was communications minister, Babur Ghauri, with his bizarre plea that elections should be postponed for a year as this was essential for the completion of the huge development projects (residing mostly in the imagination of the ruling set-up) currently underway.

His party, the MQM (in the opinion of some observers, the real ruling party), was quick to say this was his “personal opinion”, which was strange to say the least because the MQM, with its Fuehrer principle as its most outstanding feature, is one party in which there is no room for personal opinions of any kind.

Following Ghauri, Q League president, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, and man for all climate changes, Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, said that if the regional situation took a turn for the worse (that is, if the Yanks bomb Iran), elections might have to be postponed for a year.

There is no shortage of crystal ball-gazers who maintain that elections even remotely free and fair are something the present dispensation simply can’t afford, the risks being too great. If the Generalissimo gives himself another five-year term from the present assemblies, he makes a laughing stock of himself and the country. And if elections are held thereafter, after he has safely pocketed his own tenure, who will believe in the credibility of those elections?

As for the alternative, it is unthinkable: entrusting the Generalissimo’s fate to the next assemblies, a sure formula for political annihilation. So it is scarcely surprising if politicians allied to the present set-up have started touching on the postponement theme. Of one thing, however, we can be reasonably sure. Once postponed, we can forget about elections during what remains of this stable era.

Some stability we have when the country’s domestic scene is completely at the mercy of external factors. The Yanks, caught not in one but two quagmires – Iraq and Afghanistan – are pushing us hard to “do more” in Waziristan. The army, still licking its wounds from the time it first ventured into Waziristan, is no mood for that. Musharraf’s hands are thus tied. Even if he wants to “do more”, he can’t.

At the same time, it is not easy displeasing the Yanks because, after all, with their five-year aid package and monthly payments amounting to almost 80-100 million dollars (this for the ‘logistical’ support we provide, something separate from the aid package) they are helping underwrite this set-up. Not surprising therefore if our leaders catch cold when Washington sneezes. And not surprising at all if our ambassador in Washington warns that more American pressure on Pakistan could bring down the present set-up in Islamabad.

This is an ominous admission if we go deeper into its meaning. For what it implies is potential ferment and unrest in the mother of all institutions: other riders on horseback emerging from the shadows and assuming the responsibility of saving the nation – yet again. (Pakistan would turn the corner if only its saviours would leave it alone.)

Durrani should know what he’s talking about. As military secretary to Gen Ziaul Haq, he saw events from up close during that dark and turbulent period in Pakistan’s history. Later as commander 1st Armoured Division it was at his invitation that Gen Zia flew down to Bahawalpur to watch the evaluation tests of the American M-60 tank (which, mercifully, we didn’t buy), a trip from which Zia never returned. When an insider like Durrani, a military Brahmin, talks of military politics, his words are not to be taken lightly.

While America has allies around the globe, we seem to be in a class of our own. We are a nuclear power and have a huge standing army, among the half dozen biggest armies in the world. But for all the good this military prowess is doing us we could see it sink in the Indian Ocean and it wouldn’t make a difference.

Makes one wonder why we continue to spend so much on arms. What for? To fight which enemies? Most of our military planning is focused on India, but with the eastern front now quiet and the border with Afghanistan disturbed, the army’s principal focus, for the first time in 60 years, has turned west.

Not content with this advantage, India finds it hard to resist the temptation to make monkeys out of us, the so-called peace process having become an endeavour in which Pakistan is doing all the clapping while India is content to watch, and perhaps be amused by, our one-sided overtures.

But not to worry. Thursday’s papers brought the good news of five more major generals promoted to the rank of lieutenant-general. We now have nearly 150 serving lieutenant-generals and major-generals in the army. In the air force there are more air vice-marshals, and in the navy more rear and vice-admirals, than ever before. The Rawalpindi/Islamabad area and Lahore Defence and Cantonment probably have the highest concentration of serving and retired brass anywhere on this planet.

Yet never was so much brass shackled to so much timidity. When Musharraf seized power he vowed to refashion the country. In that he has singularly succeeded, although not perhaps in the way that might have been intended.

The most frightening aspect of the present situation is not that external dangers threaten us but that we suffer from a deficit of leadership and direction. The challenges we face are huge; our response is inadequate. And the quality of our leadership…well, the less said about that the better. No wonder, Pakistan gives the impression of a frail vessel tossed about on stormy seas.

After the fall of France in May 1940, when Chamberlain was still prime minister and hesitant to step down, Leopold Amery speaking in the House of Commons quoted Cromwell’s famous words (which I have had occasion to cite in this space before) dismissing the Long Parliament: “It is not fit you should sit here any longer – you have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately… Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. Go.” Chamberlain could not remain in office after such a stunning indictment. It was then that Churchill took over.

Where is our House of Commons and where our Leopold Amerys? In GHQ, the holy of holies, silence, caution and discretion reign. Parliament is a charade, an apology for its very existence. The domestic political scene is in hock to the Chaudhries. What more is there to say? In Karachi we have the MQM. Who will quote Cromwell’s words? And who is likely to heed them?

(Courtesy Dawn. Com )

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